Russian Warfare Report 2022
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March 28, 2022
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As Russia expands its assault on Ukraine, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Analysis Lab (DFRLab) is holding an in depth eye on Russia’s actions throughout the navy, cyber, and data domains. With greater than 5 years of expertise monitoring the state of affairs in Ukraine, in addition to Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the US, NATO, and the European Union, DFRLab’s international crew presents the most recent installment of the Russian Warfare Report.
Extra items from Georgian breakaway areas be part of Russian offensive
Ukraine Military claims items of Russian forces retreating and regrouping in Belarus
Luhansk separatist chief declares plans to carry referendum becoming a member of Russia
Russian officers, media suggest going past Ukraine and goal different nations, together with NATO states
Russian unbiased media outlet Novaya Gazeta suspends operations after warnings from state censor
Spotify ends all service in Russia after a month of compromises
Ukraine launches investigation into video alleged to indicate troopers taking pictures Russian POWs
On March 25, Vladimir Anua, de-facto protection minister of the Georgian breakaway area of Abkhazia, confirmed that Abkhazia would offer navy help to Russia. The assertion was launched after Abkhazian chief Aslan Bzhania met with Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.
On March 26, an extra 150 troops have been despatched to Ukraine from Tskhinvali, the occupied capital of the breakaway area of South Ossetia. Over the previous week, footage has emerged on-line depicting the motion of navy items from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
On March 19, TikTok footage depicted the mobilization of navy items from Russia’s seventh navy base in Gudauta, Abkhazia. The DFRLab geolocated the footage to Gudauta central railway station, shifting northwest in direction of Russia. The convoy seems to have arrived in Russia by March 24, because the Telegram channel ДвіЩ (“two” in Ukrainian) posted a video reportedly of the identical convoy heading to Ukraine through Sochi, Russia.
The DFRLab geolocated the video to an space close to the village of Chemitokvadzhe in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai area.
Photographs printed by Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian journalist and editor at Censor.web, counsel that some items from Russia’s seventh navy base have been in Ukraine as of March 21. Based on Butusov, paperwork from Russia’s seventh navy base have been found after a Ukrainian airstrike focused Russian items close to the villages of Pisky and Konstyantynivka in Mykolaiv Oblast.
In the meantime, on March 26, footage appeared on South Ossetia Telegram channels and Fb pages displaying a navy convoy leaving Russia’s 4th navy base in Tskhinvali. That very same day, a tank with an Ossetian flag was noticed in Melitopol, Ukraine. The Twitter person @visionergeo geolocated the footage to the town’s southern entrance. The tank is probably going heading in direction of Mariupol or Huliaipole, based on Kirill Mikhailov, a researcher with the Battle Intelligence Crew.
A tank with an Ossetian flag was noticed in occupied Melitopol. pic.twitter.com/vtFYQbOlEN
On March 27, one other video allegedly depicting South Ossetian fighters appeared on Telegram channels. The video caption mentioned that South Ossetian fighters fired a 9M113 Konkurs anti-tank guided missile at Ukrainian positions. The precise date and placement of the alleged strike are unknown.
North Ossetian items are additionally preventing in Ukraine. North Ossetia is firmly a part of Russia, whereas South Ossetia is a Georgian area that Russia acknowledged after the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict. The Ossetian tricolor flag is utilized by each North and South Ossetia. Because of this it’s difficult to attribute rising footage to North or South Ossetian items with out additional particulars.
—Sopo Gelava, Analysis Affiliate, Tbilisi, Georgia
On March 27, the Basic Employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian items in northern Ukraine have been withdrawing to Belarus to regroup. Based on the report, Russian items from the thirty fifth Mixed Arms Military of the Japanese Army District have retreated to Belarus by way of the Chernobyl exclusion zone. The Ukrainian Military mentioned Russian troops have been regrouping and restoring armor capabilities due to “important losses inflicted by Ukrainian forces.”
There’s restricted open-source proof to substantiate the Ukrainian Military’s assertion. Nonetheless, some civilian footage surfaced on-line on March 27, displaying the Russian navy shifting towards Mazyr, Belarus, alongside the R-31 freeway. These automobiles could also be coming from Naroulya, a Belarusian city near the border with Ukraine, however on the time of writing, the DFRLab couldn’t affirm whether or not these items got here from Ukraine or had remained in Belarus. Western media retailers, together with The Hill and the New York Occasions, reported on the alleged Russian retreat.
—Lukas Andriukaitis, Affiliate Director, Brussels, Belgium
Leonid Pasechnik, head of the separatist Luhansk Folks’s Republic (LNR) mentioned on March 27 that the republic plans to carry a referendum on the area becoming a member of Russia. Nonetheless, after Pasechnik’s assertion, his international coverage advisor, Rodion Miroshnik, clarified that it might be difficult to conduct a referendum amid ongoing navy actions. Miroshnik mentioned that regardless of 90 p.c of LNR territory being “liberated,” some giant cities stay beneath the management of the Ukrainian military, and LNR authorities need all residents to have the chance to take part within the referendum, which for the time being appears to be unattainable.
Russian officers have differed of their response to the supposed LNR referendum. Russian Senator Andrey Klishas argued that since Russia has acknowledged the LNR as an unbiased state, it has the appropriate to make unbiased selections based mostly on its structure. In the meantime, Leonid Kalashnikov, head of the Duma’s committee on relations with the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Unbiased States, believes “it’s not the appropriate time” to carry a referendum within the LNR. He argued that holding a referendum was unwise as a result of a lot of the inhabitants of LNR and the Folks’s Republic of Donetsk (DNR) had been evacuated.
On March 25, Basic Sergei Rudskoy, Deputy Chief of Russia’s Basic Employees, introduced that Russia had accomplished the “first stage” of its navy “operation” in Ukraine. Rudskoy mentioned the main target would shift to “reaching the primary objective – the liberation of Donbas.” He additionally shared the deceptive declare that Russia attacked Kyiv and different main Ukrainian cities to forestall Ukrainian forces from “strengthening their grouping in Donbas” till Russia might fully liberate the DNR and LNR. Russia could give the inexperienced gentle to carry a referendum if the separatists achieve management of the Donbas territories presently beneath Ukrainian management.
Crimean authorities held an identical “referendum” in 2014 on the reunification of Crimea with Russia, which led to the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia. The Crimean referendum was declared illegitimate by Ukraine, and most nations haven’t acknowledged the outcomes.
A 2019 ballot carried out by the Centre for East European and Worldwide Research discovered that 55 p.c of individuals dwelling within the separatist-held areas of Donbas expressed an curiosity in turning into a part of Ukraine, whereas 27 p.c most well-liked to hitch Russia however preserve a particular autonomous standing.
—Givi Gigitashvili, Analysis Affiliate, Warsaw, Poland
Deputy of the Moscow Metropolis Duma Sergei Savostyanov proposed that Russia ought to broaden its “particular operation for denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine” and embrace the Baltic nations, Poland, Moldova, and Kazakhstan. Based on Savostyanov, “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine” would enhance safety for the folks of Russia, however focusing on extra nations would guarantee Russia’s safety much more so.
Kremlin media and commentators have beforehand recommended going past Ukraine and focusing on NATO nations. On the TV present hosted by the Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyev, Kremlin commentators lately threatened Europe with a nuclear strike if NATO deployed a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine.
—Eto Buziashvili, Analysis Affiliate, Washington DC
On March 28, Russian unbiased media outlet Novaya Gazeta introduced it was suspending operations till the tip of Russia’s “particular operation on the territory of Ukraine” after Russian watchdog Roskomnadzor issued it a second warning for violating Russian regulation. Roskomnadzor said that Novaya Gazeta was issued the second warning attributable to publishing a fabric on its web site through which the outlet had did not correctly mark a non-profit group listed as a “international agent” in Russia.
Roskomnadzor issued its first warning to Novaya Gazeta on March 22 for a similar cause and demanded from the outlet to right away edit textual content and establish an NGO as a “international agent” group in accordance with Russian laws. After receiving the primary warning, Novaya Gazeta commented that they weren’t conscious of what Roskomnadzor was referred to in its warning. Based on Russian laws, receiving two warnings from Russian watchdog inside a one-year interval can consequence in Roskomnadzor revoking an outlet’s publishing license. Novaya Gazeta has beforehand complied with Russian media restrictions and abstained from utilizing the phrase “conflict,” changing it with “particular operation” in quotes in its protection of the conflict in Ukraine.
On March 22, earlier than the outlet acquired the primary warning, Novaya Gazeta editor-in-chief of Dmitry Muratov introduced he was planning to public sale his Nobel Peace Prize medal to help Ukrainian refugees. And the day previous to suspending operations, Muratov requested a number of Russian journalists interviewing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask a lot of questions on behalf of himself and Novaya Gazeta. Roskomnadzor and Russia’s prosecutor’s workplace prohibited Russian media retailers from publishing Zelenskyy’s interview.
—Givi Gigitashvili, Analysis Affiliate, Warsaw, Poland
On March 25, the music streaming platform Spotify introduced that it could be suspending all service in Russia. Spotify launched in Russia in July 2020. As of late 2021, the Spotify smartphone app was receiving greater than 600,000 downloads per thirty days within the nation. Spotify cited Russia’s March 11 “faux information” regulation because the impetus for this choice, which criminalized speech in opposition to the Russian navy with as much as fifteen years in jail. Complying with this regulation would doubtless have required important censorship of Spotify’s catalogue of music and podcasts.
This choice marks the tip of a month-long balancing act through which Spotify had weighed mounting boycott pressures in opposition to its want to take care of the “international movement of knowledge” for Russian customers. On February 26—two days after the invasion started—Spotify was nonetheless dedicated to establishing a authorized entity in Russia in compliance with the calls for of the Russian state censor. By March 3, Spotify had reversed course, closing its Russian workplace and eradicating RT and Sputnik content material from its service globally. And on March 10, Spotify demonetized all Russian providers as a way to guarantee compliance with US sanctions. With its March 25 announcement, Spotify has ceased streaming solely.
In early March, Spotify emerged as an unlikely entrance within the info battle between Russia and Ukraine. USA At this time reported on the rise of seemingly pro-Russian playlists with titles like “Ukraine must be bombed” and “Songs that hit more durable than Russia’s nuclear weapon in Ukraine.” The Ukrainian authorities, in the meantime, pressured Spotify to permit artists to re-upload their album covers with Ukrainian flags.
—Emerson T. Brooking, Resident Senior Fellow, Washington DC
On March 27, a graphic video started to flow into on Telegram allegedly displaying Ukrainian troopers mocking and taking pictures Russian prisoners of conflict within the legs. The earliest occasion of the video, recognized by Mediazona, an unbiased Russian media outlet now banned in Russia, appeared on the subreddit Ukraine Warfare Report at about 2am GMT.
Journalists working for Kremlin-owned media retailers, equivalent to Aleksandr Kots, Yevgeny Poddubniy, and Andrey Medvedev, wrote in regards to the video on their private Telegram channels, describing it as a conflict crime carried out by “Ukrainian Nazis.” All three journalists printed their opinions on March 27 between 9am and 10am Moscow time.
Later, the video was shared on Twitter by Maria Dubovikova, a pro-Kremlin political analyst. Eliot Higgins, the founding father of Bellingcat, quote-tweeted Dubovikova saying, “A really severe incident that may require additional investigation, perhaps the movies on this thread may be geolocated?” Twitter person @zcjbrooker geolocated the attainable location to Malaya Rohan, a village near Kharkiv. The person corroborated his assessments with open-source reviews in regards to the village’s liberation on March 25.
On March 27, the Investigative Committee of Russia launched an investigation into the attainable conflict crime. The announcement on the committee’s web site speculates that the video was filmed in Kharkiv Oblast.
On the night of March 27, Valery Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, wrote on Fb that the video was “staged” and urged everybody to “think about the realities of knowledge and psychological conflict.” Later, Oleksiy Arestovich, an advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Workplace, wrote on Telegram that the video was being verified. “If not faux, the responsible can be punished. If it’s faux, we’ll be extra vigilant. Supplies like this, and other forms, have been seen already,” he wrote.
Julian Röpcke, the managing editor for politics at German tabloid BILD, mentioned on Twitter that he believed the video to be actual. Ropcke debunked the argument that there was no seen blood by sharing a phase of the footage the place blood is clearly seen streaming from the injured males. Olga Skabeeva, the host of the Kremlin propaganda present 60 Minutes, cited BILD’s report and Ropcke’s Twitter account on her Telegram channel.
—Nika Aleksejeva, Lead Researcher, Riga, Latvia
Nika Aleksejeva, Eto Buziashvili, Lukas Andriukaitis, Givi Gigitashvili, Emerson T. Brooking, and Sopo Gelava
